Probability and Statistics

I’ve got a question for you. When is it good to be part of 10% of a population? Well, if it means the ‘upper’ 10% then scoring well on a test would make you in the top 10%. Good thing. If you win the lottery, I’m sure the percent is even smaller. Maybe you’re in the top 0.005% of the population. On the flip side, what population do you not want to be part of the 10%?

Well, I posed a question to a friend of mine at work who is male, about 45 and single. Always has been, never married. “How many people just NEVER get married?” We both hypothesized, he thought it was in the single digits, I thought it was more like 15%. He is the internet master so I tasked him with finding this statistic. Drum roll please. It’s 10%. 10% of people in the US just never get married. So, there’s a 90% chance that any one of us will get married. Seems like a high enough probability. I mean, I’d bet on something if I had a 90% shot of being right. Why is it then, that I feel I won’t ever get married? I haven’t entirely decided if this is a good thing or a bad thing, and I’m really hesitant to tell you I’ve often thought, “okay, can’t I just get married once?” As in, if I got divorced, at least I could say I’ve been married before? Ummmm, why is this a conclusion I’ve drawn? Why does being married at some point or another make me feel less uneasy about being single? Does anyone else feel this way?

So I started perusing the net tonight in search of facts. Cold, hard facts. That’s what I like to see. And I came up with this:

Aug. 9, 2006 -- People who have never married are more likely to die -- at all ages -- than people who are married and live together, U.S. data show.

Great opening line…really catches my attention.

It's the "never-married penalty," suggest University of California researchers Robert M. Kaplan, PhD, and Richard G. Kronick, PhD, in the August issue of the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health.

Never-Married penalty? As if not being able to register for expensive gifts isn’t enough of a penalty?

Kaplan and Kronick extracted data from two sources: a 1989 national health interview survey, and the 1997 U.S. national death index. They had sufficient data to analyze information on more than 80,000 Americans.
Their main findings:
· Never being married has a greater risk of "poor health outcome" than being divorced or widowed.

See, even being married at SOME point raises your life expectancy!

· For men, the never-married penalty is stronger early in life.

Alright, since I’m a woman, I guess I don’t have to worry for a few more years.

· The never-married penalty affects both men and women.

Yeah, yeah, I got it. But if I buy what you say above, it won’t happen until maybe I’m at least 40.

"The risks of being never married ... rival the risks of having increased blood pressure or high cholesterol," Kaplan and Kronick conclude.

Are you kidding me? Being single is as dangerous as high colestral? Fuck running and Weight Watchers…I’m going to eat a cheesburger. Might as well, I’m obviously dying young.

The researchers found that never-married people, compared with their married peers, are:
· 5 times more likely to die of infectious disease
· Twice as likely to die in accidents, homicides, or suicides
· 38% more likely to die of heart disease

So now I know why I want to get married at some point….so I don’t die a premature death from a heart attack, while falling off a ladder, while suffering from a horrible case of TB. It all makes sense now! Good to know I’m on the ball without even knowing it. So, tip to all of you….go get married so you don’t die! Hurry! You are an accident waiting to happen! Infectious diseases seek you out! No matter how healthy you are, your heart could very well explode in a matter of minutes! You've been warned.

So then I stumbled across 10 bad reasons to get married. I was upset that ‘afraid you’re going to die’ wasn’t in the top ten:

1. You want to get married because everyone else is getting married.
Hmmm, maybe

2. You want to get married because you are afraid to be alone.
Well, I kinda like being alone sometimes

3. You want get married because you want someone to support you.
I think I got that one covered on my own. BUT if a quadillionare came into the picture, I wouldn’t kick him out of bed for eating crackers if you know what I mean.

4. You want to get married to get out of your parents house.
OMG, if I was waiting for that I would have died of the aforementioned suicide (just kidding Mom!)

5. You want to get married to fill the emptiness you feel inside.
I could soooo go dirty with this comment.

6. You want to get married because you are pregnant.
Not last time I checked. But it could just be a really long gestation period.

7. You want to get married to make someone jealous or to get even with someone.
Oooo, I’m not above looking good at a wedding, but getting married for revenge??

8. You want to get married because you are simply dying to plan your dream wedding.
Totally. I want a wedding even if there’s no groom. I want to register for gifts and you must all throw me a shower. Thnx..

9. You want to get married because you want desperately to be a bride, wear a beautiful dress, open lots of presents and go on a dream honeymoon.
Yes, yes, yes and yes! Anyone up for a trip to Fiji?

10. You want to get married because you want to feel special.
Oh I already feel ‘special’ on a daily basis. Sometime I feel like I should be riding the short bus to work.

Well, there you have it. My take on maybe getting married, maybe not and some helpful tips to you other singletons out there. Beware of the TB…it’s lurking around the corner ready to pounce.

Champagne wishes and bridal registry dreams

Sooo going to be my wedding dress if this marriage thing pans out. I think it says ‘class’, what do you think?

P.S. I got another hit from Spain. Different person, but again with the 0 second thing. I am obviously not popular in Spain. Oh, and they found my page by searching for "I'm going to rock your body". Dirty Spaniards.